Candidate Filing Wrap-Up: Who’s Safe and Who’s Vulnerable

The candidate filing deadline has passed in Arizona.  With a hat tip to The Yellow Sheet for being first to publish, here is the current list of federal, statewide, and legislative candidates as of 4:30 p.m. on April 7th.

For the Legislature, the most vulnerable candidate might be Ronnie Maestas-Condos with a mere 20 signature cushion (5%) in LD14. She is one of thirteen candidates with a signature cushion under 100.  All incumbents (other than those who previously announced their retirement) filed by the deadline with the exception of Rep. Isela Blanc (who later confirmed her own decision at the filing deadline).  Sen. Tony Navarette has the smallest cushion among any incumbent, but he has no primary or general election opponent.  Rep. Diego Rodriguez has the smallest signature cushion (24%) among incumbents with a primary election opponent.

On the other hand, Wendy Rogers blew away the field in signatures – with the Secretary of State even turning away a portion of her signatures because Rogers had already met the maximum allowed by Arizona law.

Legislature

District	Office	Candidate	Min. Sigs	Filed Sigs	Cushion	% Cushion
14	House	Ronnie Maestas-Condos	370	390	20	5%
1	House	David Schuck	632	684	52	8%
3	House	Javier Soto	413	460	47	11%
1	House	Ed Cocchiola	632	707	75	12%
29	House	Alysia McMillan	246	278	32	13%
22	Senate	Van DiCarlo	654	745	91	14%
30	Senate	Tony Navarrete	346	397	51	15%
29	Senate	John Wilson	246	284	38	15%
21	Senate	Brian Whitman	420	488	68	16%
17	House	Liz Harris	541	631	90	17%
15	House	Justin Wilmeth	558	685	127	23%
18	House	Alyssa Sheahan	499	613	114	23%
27	House	Diego Rodriguez	442	549	107	24%
26	House	Bill Loughige	325	409	84	26%
10	House	Paul Stapleton-Smith	435	554	119	27%
16	Senate	Kelly Townsend	579	742	163	28%
4	Senate	Travis Angry	298	387	89	30%
22	Senate	Hop Nguyen	654	852	198	30%
29	House	Helen Fokszanskyj-Conti	246	322	76	31%
8	Senate	Barbara McGuire	358	471	113	32%
16	House	Forest John Moriarty	579	765	186	32%
18	Senate	Suzanne Sharer	499	660	161	32%
13	House	Mariana Sandoval	412	547	135	33%
25	Senate	Paul Weigel	399	530	131	33%
21	House	Beverly Pingerelli	484	643	159	33%
25	House	Michelle Udall	548	734	186	34%
7	House	Arlando Teller	509	686	177	35%
24	Senate	Ryan Starzyk	461	624	163	35%
2	House	Luis Parra	403	547	144	36%
10	House	Domingo DeGrazia	435	593	158	36%
25	House	Kathy Pearce	548	752	204	37%
2	House	Andrea Dalessandro	403	555	152	38%
15	House	Jarret Hamstreet	558	769	211	38%
23	House	Jacqui Fox	668	924	256	38%
2	House	Deborah McEwen	310	429	119	38%
10	House	Mabelle Gummere	387	537	150	39%
12	House	Jake Hoffman	671	936	265	39%
28	House	Jana Jackson	472	676	204	43%
26	House	Marcus Sifuentes	325	466	141	43%
30	House	Robert Meza	346	500	154	45%
1	Senate	Karen Fann	632	915	283	45%
13	House	Steve Montenegro	535	780	245	46%
1	House	Judy Burges	632	931	299	47%
2	Senate	Mark Workman	310	457	147	47%
27	Senate	Rebecca Rios	442	652	210	48%
7	House	Jim Parks	314	465	151	48%
25	House	Rusty Bowers	548	817	269	49%
25	Senate	Tyler Pace	548	821	273	50%
12	Senate	Warren Petersen	671	1029	358	53%
3	Senate	Sally Ann Gonzales	413	635	222	54%
20	House	Anthony Kern	455	704	249	55%
10	Senate	Justine Wadsack	387	599	212	55%
21	House	Randy Miller	484	754	270	56%
14	House	Kim Beach-Moschetti	370	580	210	57%
29	House	Billy Bragg	246	386	140	57%
11	Senate	Linda Patterson	454	714	260	57%
12	House	Travis Grantham	671	1065	394	59%
5	House	Regina Cobb	555	882	327	59%
24	House	Jennifer Longdon	461	734	273	59%
15	House	Steve Kaiser	558	898	340	61%
10	House	Michael Hicks	387	625	238	61%
17	House	Nora Ellen	541	876	335	62%
30	House	Raquel Teran	346	565	219	63%
14	Senate	Bob Karp	370	611	241	65%
6	House	Brenda Barton	484	800	316	65%
10	Senate	Kirsten Engel	435	720	285	66%
2	House	Billy Peard	403	670	267	66%
15	Senate	Nancy Barto	558	930	372	67%
27	House	Catherine Miranda	442	743	301	68%
23	House	John Kavanagh	668	1125	457	68%
7	House	Myron Tsosie	509	861	352	69%
22	House	Frank Carroll	654	1110	456	70%
7	Senate	Jamescita Peshlakai	509	865	356	70%
27	House	Reginald Bolding	442	760	318	72%
2	House	Daniel Hernandez	403	693	290	72%
22	House	Ben Toma	654	1128	474	72%
22	Senate	Sarah Tyree	447	771	324	72%
17	Senate	J.D. Mesnard	541	947	406	75%
13	House	Joanne Osborne	535	937	402	75%
11	House	Felipe Perez	454	799	345	76%
11	House	Mark Finchem	538	956	418	78%
11	Senate	Joanna Mendoza	454	807	353	78%
12	House	Mark Boesen	671	1197	526	78%
29	House	Cesar Chavez	357	637	280	78%
23	Senate	Alex Kolodin	668	1203	535	80%
9	House	Randy Friese	452	815	363	80%
23	Senate	Michelle Ugenti-Rita	668	1205	537	80%
22	House	Wendy Garcia	447	813	366	82%
23	House	Joseph Chaplik	668	1219	551	82%
9	House	Pamela Powers Hannley	452	826	374	83%
6	Senate	Sylvia Allen	484	885	401	83%
27	Senate	Garland Shreves	256	469	213	83%
26	Senate	Jae Chin	325	597	272	84%
8	House	Sharon Girard	358	659	301	84%
23	Senate	Seth Blattman	481	888	407	85%
13	Senate	Sine Kerr	535	988	453	85%
22	Senate	David Livingston	654	1208	554	85%
16	House	Lisa Godzich	579	1086	507	88%
9	House	Brendan Lyons	383	720	337	88%
17	House	Jeff Weninger	541	1019	478	88%
5	House	Leo Biasiucci	555	1047	492	89%
12	Senate	Lynsey Robinson	463	880	417	90%
16	House	John Fillmore	579	1109	530	92%
18	House	Bob Robson	499	956	457	92%
23	House	Eric Kurland	481	925	444	92%
26	House	Partrick Morales	413	795	382	92%
22	House	Kathleen Honne	447	871	424	95%
20	House	Shawnna Bolick	455	891	436	96%
17	Senate	A.J. Kurdoglu	479	939	460	96%
25	House	Suzanne Hug	399	783	384	96%
21	House	Kevin Payne	484	951	467	96%
8	House	David Cook	374	738	364	97%
26	Senate	Jana Lynn Granillo	413	816	403	98%
23	House	Jay Lawrence	668	1323	655	98%
7	House	David Peelman	314	622	308	98%
16	House	Jacqueline Parker	579	1147	568	98%
1	House	Quang Nguyen	632	1267	635	100%
8	House	Neal Carter	374	755	381	102%
19	Senate	Lupe Contreras	396	808	412	104%
21	House	Kathy Knecht	420	860	440	105%
18	House	Mitzi Epstein	500	1040	540	108%
27	House	Tatiana Pena	256	535	279	109%
11	House	Bret Roberts	538	1134	596	111%
20	Senate	Paul Boyer	455	960	505	111%
2	Senate	Rosanna Gabaldon	403	867	464	115%
18	Senate	Sean Bowie	500	1081	581	116%
11	Senate	Vince Leach	538	1177	639	119%
19	House	Lorenzo Sierra	396	869	473	119%
4	House	Joel John	298	655	357	120%
14	House	Becky Nutt	475	1045	570	120%
19	House	Leezah Sun	396	876	480	121%
15	House	Kristin Dybvig-Pawelko	427	951	524	123%
3	House	Alma Hernandez	413	928	515	125%
29	House	Richard Andrade	357	807	450	126%
13	House	Tim Dunn	535	1212	677	127%
18	House	Jennifer Jermaine	500	1135	635	127%
9	Senate	Victoria Steele	452	1029	577	128%
4	House	Gerae Peten	379	867	488	129%
26	House	Debbie Nez-Manuel	413	949	536	130%
4	Senate	Lisa Otondo	379	871	492	130%
29	House	Teddy Castro	357	827	470	132%
29	Senate	Martin Quezada	357	828	471	132%
3	House	Andres Cano	413	960	547	132%
19	House	Diego Espinoza	396	945	549	139%
28	House	Aaron Lieberman	441	1058	617	140%
21	Senate	Rick Gray	484	1173	689	142%
10	House	Stephanie Stahl Hamilton	435	1069	634	146%
6	House	Walt Blackman	484	1228	744	154%
28	Senate	Christine Marsh	441	1142	701	159%
14	Senate	David Gowan	475	1243	768	162%
1	House	Selina Bliss	632	1699	1067	169%
28	House	Kelli Butler	441	1188	747	169%
28	House	Ken Bowers	472	1280	808	171%
14	House	Gail Griffin	475	1292	817	172%
8	Senate	TJ Shope	374	1018	644	172%
8	House	Frank Pratt	374	1038	664	178%
1	House	Steven Sensmeier	632	1817	1185	188%
26	House	Melody Hernandez	413	1218	805	195%
24	House	Amish Shah	461	1373	912	198%
26	House	Athena Salman	413	1262	849	206%
26	Senate	Juan Mendez	413	1271	858	208%
4	House	Charlene Fernandez	379	1256	877	231%
24	Senate	Lela Alston	461	1538	1077	234%
20	House	Judy Schwiebert	425	1448	1023	241%
15	Senate	Heather Carter	558	2008	1450	260%
5	Senate	Sonny Borrelli	555	2020	1465	264%
20	Senate	Doug Ervin	425	1569	1144	269%
6	Senate	Felicia French	423	1563	1140	270%
28	Senate	Kate Brophy McGee	472	1794	1322	280%
1	House	Judy Stahl	376	1462	1086	289%
6	House	Coral Evans	423	1753	1330	314%
17	House	Jennifer Pawlik	479	2106	1627	340%
6	Senate	Wendy Rogers	484	2902	2418	500%

For the Corporation Commission race, David Farnsworth has the lowest signature cushion of any candidate (3%) and should expect a challenge.  Bill Mundell and other Democrats in this race generally hold the edge in signatures.

Statewide

Candidate	Min. Sigs	Filed Sigs	Cushion	% Cushion
David Farnsworth	6663	6885	222	3%
Kim Owens	6663	7341	678	10%
Boyd Dunn	6663	7361	698	10%
Eric Sloan	6663	7666	1003	15%
Nick Myers	6663	7726	1063	16%
Shea Stanfield	6325	8188	1863	29%
Anna Tovar	6325	8388	2063	33%
Lea Marquez Peterson	6663	9161	2498	37%
Bill Mundell	6325	12060	5735	91%

As for federal races, Cong. Greg Stanton (249%) and Mark Kelly (201%) led their respective fields with the largest signature margin.  Perhaps the biggest surprise is that no Libertarian candidates filed for the U.S. Senate despite four candidates who had filed statements of interest.

U.S. Congress

Cong District	Candidate	Min. Sigs	Filed Sigs	Cushion	% Cushion
1	Doyel Shamley	1415	1561	146	10%
2	Shay Stautz	1371	1541	170	12%
2	Peter Quilter	1431	1659	228	16%
7	Nina Becker	805	967	162	20%
9	Sam Huang	1387	1731	344	25%
7	Joshua Barnett	805	1036	231	29%
3	Daniel Wood	998	1297	299	30%
5	Jon Ireland	1434	1888	454	32%
4	Stuart Starky	1187	1598	411	35%
9	Talia Fuentes-Wolfe	1521	2067	546	36%
4	Delina DiSanto	1187	1675	488	41%
9	Dave Giles	1387	1971	584	42%
6	Stephanie Rimmer	1451	2099	648	45%
4	Anne Marie Ward	1816	2654	838	46%
5	Javier Ramos	1434	2117	683	48%
1	Nolan Reidhead	1415	2139	724	51%
8	Bob Olson	1402	2305	903	64%
2	Ann Kirkpatrick	1431	2381	950	66%
8	Bob Mussselwhite	1402	2359	957	68%
2	Joseph Morgan	1371	2321	950	69%
2	Noran Eric Ruden	1371	2322	951	69%
1	Eva Putzova	1526	2654	1128	74%
6	Anita Malik	1451	2550	1099	76%
1	Tiffany Shedd	1415	2552	1137	80%
5	Joan Greene	1434	2852	1418	99%
4	Paul Gosar	1816	3658	1842	101%
9	Nicholas Tutora	1387	2862	1475	106%
1	Tom O'Halleran	1526	3363	1837	120%
6	Karl Gentles	1451	3220	1769	122%
3	Raul Grijalva	1405	3149	1744	124%
5	Andy Biggs	1950	4589	2639	135%
2	Brandon Martin	1371	3370	1999	146%
6	David Schweikert	1783	4651	2868	161%
7	Ruben Gallego	1312	3510	2198	168%
8	Michael Muscato	1402	4035	2633	188%
8	Debbie Lesko	1802	5285	3483	193%
6	Hiral Tipirneni	1451	4454	3003	207%
9	Greg Stanton	1521	5304	3783	249%

 

U.S. Senate

Candidate	Min. Sigs	Filed Sigs	Cushion	% Cushion
Daniel McCarthy	6663	9772	3109	47%
Martha McSally	6663	15898	9235	139%
Mark Kelly	6325	19066	12741	201%

The candidate challenge deadline is April 20th.  Stay tuned for updates on lawsuits as they are filed.